If we exclude that 50%, we are left with around 17 million people who may currently have long Covidvery near the HPS estimate of 16.3 million.4. And with a new machine learning model designed specifically for the quad-pixel sensor, iPhone now shoots ProRAW at 48MP with an unprecedented level of detail, enabling new creative workflows for pro users. More speed, more money, and more trials are needed to understand the pathophysiology of long Covid (and other post-viral illnesses) and identify treatments. Current ShadowStats Alternate-Data GDP, Money Supply, CPI and Unemployment series all are updated and detailed on their respective ALTERNATE DATA TABS (see the links above in the ribbon menu). Rents are still climbing sharply. This June, the Census Bureau finally added. Because the chart doesnt reveal the true picture, we downloaded the death data from the Public Health Scotland Covid-19 Dashboard, which you can also do so here, and calculated the total number of deaths between week 15 and week 42 of 2022. In parallel, the original Producer Price Index Series - Finished Goods, which goes back to 1947, showed similar patterns with year-to-year unadjusted change of 11.24% in October 2022, slowed from 11.55% in September, 12.80% in August, 15.33% in July and the near-term series high of 18:30% in June 2022. WebConsumer prices up 7.7 percent over year ended October 2022. Takeaways from another painful inflation report. Contact us to discuss your needs. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. Diesel prices, however, gained in December. Will the Kansas Jayhawks become the first repeat champions in men's college basketball since Florida in 2006 and 2007? Home; Subjects; Data Tools; Publications; Economic Releases; Classroom; Beta; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OEUS/JOLTS, PSB Suite 4840 PSB Suite 4160 2 Massachusetts Avenue NE Washington, DC 20212-0001 Despite lower gas prices, the overall energy index is still up 19.8 percent over the 12 months through September. Congress could also consider more targeted policies, potentially even with government support for small employers. The question everyone still seems to be asking is: Why? The speed at which central banks are raising rates to rein in inflation alongside slowing economic growth is creating extraordinary uncertainty, increased volatility and lower levels of market liquidity, said Larry Fink, BlackRocks chief executive. The October 2022 Monetary Base declined year-to-year by 15.7% (-15.7%) in October versus 15.3% (-15.3%), at a 21-month low level. Specifically: 98 percent of public schools offered full-time in-person instruction to any students in June 2022. The midpoint of this range3 million full-time equivalent workersis 1.8% of the entire U.S. During the same time, the prevalence of severe obesity increased from 4.7% to 9.2%. EXPANDED DETAIL - FLASH Designations - As seen with the latest OPENING HEADLINES of ECONOMIC, INFLATION and FEDERAL RESERVE coverage, mark the most recent or important stories, with detail behind the headline Economic and Inflation numbers reviewed in the ensuing LATEST NUMBERS Section, and the latest FOMC developments and Monetary circumstances discussed in the subsequent SYSTEMIC RISK Section MONEY SUPPLY and MONETARY BASE. Without impeding content on the screen, the Dynamic Island maintains an active state to allow users easier access to controls with a simple tap-and-hold. IT'S THE FINAL WEEKEND TO SAVE THE EXPOSE & KEEP US ONLINE - IT'S NOW THE FINAL DAY TO ENSURE THE EXPOSE IS FULLY FUNDED FOR THIS MONTH - Less than 0.1% of our readers currently support us, but if you and every other person reading this supported us today we could keep going for at least another year, and remove this annoying banner ITS THE FINAL WEEKEND In October, the number of . This means Scotland has suffered 3,398 excess deaths against the five-year average over the past 28 weeks. Cars were perhaps the most extreme example of a product rocked by the pandemic: Production slowdowns, factory shutdowns overseas, parts shortages and shipping issues combined to keep cars in short supply even as consumer demand for vehicles surged. For example, the Department of Labor and Census Bureau could conduct research on the economic and firm-level benefits of providing accommodations to people with long Covid, and relevant agencies could provide lists of high-impact accommodations, such as flexibility on deadlines, longer or more frequent breaks, flexible hours, and remote work. Auto parts are also growing rapidly more expensive: Motor vehicle parts and equipment prices climbed 13.4 in the year through September. Having depleted an estimated 45% (-45%) of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, now at its lowest level since 1984, and with a resulting, happy pre-election Third-Quarter GDP number in hand, the Administration announced (November 3rd), a December 2022 end to its extraordinary SPR depletion. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 We need to understand the root cause drivers of long Covid to design the clinical trials with the most appropriately targeted therapeutics, and combinations of therapeutics, to help these patients, said Dr. Amy Proal, a microbiologist who has published, about long Covid. Central bankers have raised interest rates five times this year and are expected to make a fourth jumbo sized, three-quarter-point move at their meeting on November 2. From pet care to dental visits, prices for a wide range of services are up a lot. Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt Breaking to a Record $31.3 Trillion (November 17th), pudhing the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. FLASH: November 2nd. The increase during this week can not be blamed on Covid-19 because just 651 deaths were attributed to the alleged disease. FOMC rate-hikes (post-Great Recession) triggered a heretofore unrecognized 2018 economic downturn/ slowdown, which was ongoing into the onset of the March 2020 Pandemic Shutdown of the U.S. Economy, and, again, which still has not recovered 2018 peak levels of activity. [See the OPENING HEADLINES.]. Even with such prevention options, people will continue to get infected, and some of them will end up with long Covid. These are age-standardised figures. Keep scrolling down for SHADOWSTATS BACKGROUND, the BUSINESS CYCLE, SHADOWSTATS ALERT and the PENDING POSTINGS Sections. A doctor stated that injected people have a damaged immune system and many will not last 2 years, If that is true, the death rate in the future will be of biblical proportions. However, more could be done to inform employers that the ADA covers long Covid and recommend potential accommodations. pre-2019 round of FOMC rate hikes. A long-awaited slowdown in goods prices isnt happening as quickly as hoped, and cars are a case in point. (November 16th) OCTOBER 2022 RETAIL SALES -- Consistent with slowing consumer activity, surging inflation and a contracting economy, inflation-adjusted Third-Quarter 2022 Real Retail Sales contracted at an annualized 2.3%% (-2.3%) pace, following an annualized 0.4% gain in Second-Quarter 2022, with a Third-Quarter 2022 year-to-year gain of 1.0%, following a Second-Quarter 2022 decline of 0.1% (-0.1%) (Census Bureau). How do we know? The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. Rising worker wages and prices for inputs like packaging and fertilizer have also driven up food costs, spilling over into higher prices at grocery stores. Markets seesaw after another high inflation reading. Best Wishes -- John Williams. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies. Thats worrying, because it suggests that wage increases a major cost for service providers may be feeding into higher prices. I make $80,000 and have $220,000 in student debt. A model poses in an editorial image shot outdoors in Portrait mode. Visit . EXPOSE & KEEP US ONLINE. Customers can get iPhone 14 Pro for $41.62 (US) a month for 24 months or $999 (US) before trade-in, 2022. According to the ONS, excess deaths have been occurring in England and Wales on a weekly basis since week 16 (week beginning 18th April) of 2022. It may also be true that Microsoft is simply so big and its pockets so deep that its The increase, known as a COLA, was the highest in decades and is intended to help retired and disabled Americans keep pace with the rate of inflation. The CPS asks about six specific manifestations of disability, which will likely identify some cases of long Covid, but almost certainly not all.2. For the Fed, this probably locks in a big November rate increase. Would love your thoughts, please comment. There are actions that we can take and will take administratively and theres also something that well be talking to Congress about.. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). Happy FOMC economic musings aside, consistent with a contracting domestic economy, todays December 1st estimates of October 2022 and revised Third-Quarter 2022 Real Construction Spending continued in deepening annual collapse, on early track for the fifth straight quarter, with an early indications for a 9.5% (-9.5%) year-to-year drop, and an annualized quarterly contraction of 13.5% (-13.5%), which would be the fifth quarter-to-quarter contraction in the last six quarters. The November 2022 Producer Price Index Final Demand Goods Inflation softened year-to-year to 9.6%, from 10.5% in October, still up by a steepening 25.4% from its pre-Pandemic level. The October year-to-tear decline was 8.7% (-8.7%, versus Septembers revised 10.5% (-10.5%) [previously 9.9% (-9.9%)], and Augusts revised near-term record annual drop of 11.0% (-11.0%) [previously 10.5% (-10.5%)], all consistent with a continuing and intensifying sharp new pullback in broad U.S. economic activity. CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA Apple today announced iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, the most advanced Pro lineup ever, featuring the Dynamic Island a new design that introduces an intuitive way to experience iPhone and the Always-On display. FLASH (April 5): U.S. Government 2021 Financial Statements show a deepening, record deficit net worth of $123.5 trillion in Fiscal Year 2021 (year-ended September 30), widening from the prior record $113.8 trillion negative net worth in 2020 [See the discussion on U.S. GOVERNMENT FISCAL CONDITIONS at the end of the SYSTEMIC RISK Section]. Again, details and extended graphics follow in the Commentary, as well as in the current Subscriber-Only DAILY UPDATE e-mails (Subscribers only -- if you are not already signed up for, but would like to receive e-mails of DAILY UPDATE changes, as the news breaks and is assessed, along with related graphs, such is part of your existing subscription. Discussed during the November 14th week, October 2022 Existing Home Sales showed deepening annual and monthly collapse, as did October New Residential Construction (Building Permits and Housing Starts). Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics had forecast a 1.5 percent decline. The storm damaged citrus groves and fields of tomatoes, strawberries, watermelon and other fruit across the Southeastern United States. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were The FOMC publishes economic forecasts each quarter, which usually are worthless [September 2022 was the last; December 2022 will be the next]. This report uses the new data to assess the labor market impact and economic burden of long Covid, and finds that: These impacts stand to worsen over time if the U.S. does not take the necessary policy actions. All posted Commentaries also are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. 5G, Gigabit LTE, VoLTE, and Wi-Fi calling are available in select markets and through select carriers. Apple debuts iPhone14 Pro and iPhone14 ProMax, Featuring the Always-On display, the first-ever 48MP camera on iPhone, Crash Detection, Emergency SOS via satellite, and an innovative new way to receive notifications and activities with the Dynamic Island. The raise for 2023 will appear in benefits payments starting in January. that labor force participation has dropped by around 1.3% across the entire 16- to 64-year-old population (not just those who are working), and that the majority of that impact is from the rise in long-term sicknesswhich he suspected was long Covid. By some metrics, inflation is hitting new highs. Nonetheless, the Fed hiked interest rates at its June 14-15 FOMC Meeting by a leaked, albeit increased, 75 Basis Points. iPhone users will have access to the entire service featuring over 3,000 studio-style workouts and meditations, all led by a diverse and inclusive team of trainers. A third of all jobs will disappear by 2030 How safe is YOUR job? You can simply enter any past date in the start date and select the end date, or you can leave it as it is set to default todays date. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. According to the ONS, excess deaths have been occurring in England and Wales on a weekly basis since week 16 (week beginning 18th April) of 2022. The US obesity prevalence was 41.9% in 2017 March 2020. total separations . Including those long-term discouraged/ displaced workers, on top of the generally flat-to-softer headline U.3 and U.6 numbers, the November 2022 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate notched lower to 24.4% in November 2022, from 24.5% in October, versus 24.4% in September, 24.6% in August, 24.4% in July, 24.3% in June, 24.6% in May, 24.5% in April, 24.4% in March, 24.6% in February, 24.5% in January 2022 and December 2021, still down from 24.7% in November and 25.0% in October. An iPhone screen reading Emergency SOS via Satellite instructs the user to be outside to get a connection, cautions that messages will take longer to send, and prompts users to answer questions to help get a faster response. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [November 10], GDP [November 30], Unemployment [December 2], Money Supply [November 22] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [October 31]. So even putting vaccinated people as unvaxxed might be a strategy used to lessen the correlation between vaccination and excess deaths. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -- November 2nd FOMC (November 2nd, Federal Reserve Board - FRB) and September 2022 Money Supply) - As expected, the Federal Reserves November 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised targeted Federal Funds Rate by another 75 basis points [0.75%], to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, with promises of further rate hikes likely to come, while holding other policies in place. Keep scrolling down for SHADOWSTATS BACKGROUND, the BUSINESS CYCLE, SHADOWSTATS ALERT and the PENDING POSTINGS Sections. Will the Kansas Jayhawks become the first repeat champions in men's college basketball since Florida in 2006 and 2007? This is why indemnity and EUAs needs too be removed so people detrimentally affected by the vaxxes can get compensation for living expenses from big pharma. The price index picked up by 0.4 percent from August, double what economists had expected, and the core measure rose by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis. All battery claims depend on the cellular network, location, signal strength, feature configuration, usage, and many other factors; actual results will vary. Mortgage rates are at their highest since the turn of the century. changed little at 5.7 million, and the rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Policy actions can mitigate the economic drag of long Covid and protect household finances, First, we need better and more accessible prevention and treatment options. iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max remove the SIM tray for US models, enabling users to more quickly and easily set up their device. Discussed during the November 14th week, October 2022 Existing Home Sales showed deepening annual and monthly collapse, as did October New Residential Construction (Building Permits and Housing Starts). The Census Bureau and BLS should also work with NIH teams researching long Covid, as well as patient advocacy groups such as Body Politic and the Patient-Led Research Collaborative, to define the questions, which should focus on the information policymakers most need, including: With 16.3 million working-age Americans afflicted and annual wage losses totaling nearly $200 billion, long Covid is already a meaningful drag on U.S. economic performance and household financial health. The Pennsylvania Homeowner Assistance Fund is open to Pennsylvania homeowners as of February 1, 2022. Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes The report has also taken on greater significance as investors grow increasingly worried about the effects of rising interest rates on global financial stability, following further turmoil in British government bond markets this week. Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me John.For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. AmeriCorps Uniter: Every Child Deserves Love . [], We as unvaccinated were doing just fine until vaccine roll out started globally. Giving Back to the Veteran Community . Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk Last Modified Date: COVERAGE/ PENDING DAILY UPDATE POSTINGS OF ECONOMIC NUMBERS AND FOMC DEVELOPMENTS: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will post the November 2022 Consumer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday, December 13th (8:30 a.m. HTML | PDF | RSS | Charts. FLASH (November 16th): October 2022 Industrial Production dropped 0.11% (-0.11%) month-to-month, down by 0.46% (-0.46%), net of prior period downside revisions, with annual growth slowing to 3.28%, from 4.96% in September [previously 5.33%]. October 14, 2022. It is also not inconsistent with the current labor market experience in the U.S., where employers in face-to-face industries such as education, transportation, food service, hospitality, and health and social care are facing persistent labor shortages. I understand that those 3 dosed would not count as 3 dosed if they died within 14 (or is it 30) days of the jab. There Is No V-Shaped Recovery At their most dramatic in summer 2021, used car prices climbed by a scorching 45 percent compared to the prior year (and 10 percent compared to the prior month). I make $80,000 and have $220,000 in student debt. SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE - December 9th to 12th [Updated December 9th, 6:15 p.m. It will detail how and why current Federal Reserve and Federal Government policies are untenable, exacerbating -- not resolving -- already unstable, soaring inflation and re-intensifying broad economic weakness, reviewing 2022 and previewing key elements of 2023. STAY WELL NATURALLY! A16 Bionic features an accelerated 5-core GPU with 50 percent more memory bandwidth perfect for graphics-intensive games and apps and a new 16-core Neural Engine capable of nearly 17 trillion operations per second. Published 14 September 2022. Using a longitudinal survey, it found that 24.1% of people who have contracted COVID-19 experienced symptoms for three months or more, which the author defined as long Covid. Well timed in advance of the Mid-Term Elections, the Administrations massive release of petroleum and heavy depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve not only temporarily softened excessively high inflation (gasoline prices) into headline September reporting, but it also narrowed the U.S. Trade Deficit, given largely unadvertised exports of related oil, which, along with artificially depressed inflation, helped to generate a temporary boost to Third-Quarter 2022 GDP. 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Yet, that robust headline Payroll Employment just minimally recovered its Pre-Pandemic level two months ago, in headline August 2022 reporting. More than 40% of all employees were thinking about leaving their jobs at the beginning of 2021, and as the year went on, workers quit in unprecedented numbers.1 Between April and September 2021, more than 24 million American employees left their jobs, an all-time record.2 As the Great Resignation rolls on, business leaders are struggling to But the cost of gasoline has been creeping up in recent weeks as a result of temporary refinery closures and increased demand after a 98-day streak of declines ended last month. -- ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the Cass Freight Index as a highest-quality coincident and leading indicator of underlying economic reality. -- November 2022 U.S. Labor Force [Employed plus Unemployed] continued in decline for the fourth straight month, signaling contracting, not expanding domestic economic activity. to tell you. Consider that in normal economic times [no Pandemic], Payroll Employment currently would be running higher by about 5,600,000 jobs than seen at present. My guess? [] Britain has suffered 39k Excess Deaths in the past 6 months Why are so many people dying? The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced it would slash production by 2 million barrels a day on Oct. 5, a change which might cause prices to shoot up. Yet, the September 2022 Money Supply reporting on October 25th still showed little or no relief. The sharp reversal in the stock market puzzled analysts. WebI sold my late mother's home for $250,000. Discussed previously here, the headline third-quarter bounce in GDP activity fully was accounted for by an orchestrated, temporary flipping of what otherwise would have been a deficit in Third-Quarter Net Exports, to a surplus, directly tied to the Administrations coincident depletion and exports of much of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, pre-Election. Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago [] Britain has suffered 39k Excess Deaths in the past 6 months Why are so many people dying? FLASH: Previously discussed, effects of the Administrations depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve gets credit for the headline Third-Quarter 2022 GDP gain, a circumstance further discussed in the LATEST NUMBERS Section. Now that the Administration has backed off playing its pre-Election inflation games with oil prices, watch for continuing, excessive headline inflation to resume its upside surge in the months ahead, with the U.S. Economy increasingly sacked by FOMC rate hikes. The speed at which this economic burden grows will depend on three factors: Unfortunately, the latest news on these is not good. So, of the 16.3 million working-age Americans with long Covid, we can assume 12.2 million were in the labor force. -- October 2022 New Home Sales continued in collapse, despite a monthly bounce on top of downwardly revised September and August activity, on early track for a sixth consecutive quarter of annual contraction. Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation Even the headline Aggregate Money Supply M2 has absorbed 14-years of normal stimulus. iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are designed to minimize their impact on the environment, with 100 percent recycled rare earth elements used in all magnets, including those used in MagSafe, and 100 percent recycled tungsten in the Taptic Engine. Discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth are found in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. "John Williams Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. Now, the supply of used cars is rebounding, and economists are looking for pre-owned vehicles to begin subtracting notably from inflation. The 48MP Main camera has a quad-pixel sensor a first for iPhone and offers 20 percent better light gathering for more detail and less noise. Visual Look Up takes photos further by introducing a new feature that allows users to tap and hold on the subject of an image to lift it from the background and place it in apps like Messages. Gas prices fell 4.9 percent in September, according to data from Thursdays inflation report. The Court Circular. The Dynamic Island blurs the line between hardware and software, fluidly expanding into different shapes to clearly convey important activities like Face ID authentication. that long Covid patients are struggling to secure approval for Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefits. iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are shown in silver. Under current FRB/ FOMC policies, headline economic activity should continue to falter, and inflation should continue to soar (expanded economic specifics are detailed in the later OPENING HEADLINE and LATEST NUMBERS Sections). While higher rates continue to hit the Economy hard, contrary to FOMC hype, they do little to constrain current Inflation. A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis study corroborates the HPS figure. 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in No. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates Published 14 September 2022. According to the ONS, excess deaths have been occurring in England and Wales on a weekly basis since week 16 (week beginning 18th April) of 2022. On top of major downside revisions, October 2022 New-Home Sales activity was up by a statistically significant 7.5% month-to-month, but the year-to-year decline of 5.8% (-5.8%) also was significant at the 90% confidence interval. Published 14 September 2022. Invisalign clear aligners are virtually invisible people may not even notice youre wearing them. That initial December 2022 Sentiment reading still held shy by 41.5% (-41.5%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level. WebWelcome to the team! Dominated by a 3.99% monthly jump in Gasoline prices, following three months of collapse, Energy inflation gained 1.80% October, having declined by 2.11% (-2.11%) in September, by 5.02% (-5.02%) in August and by 4.56% (-4.56%) in July. We thank Cass for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries. Without the safety net of SSDI and accompanying Medicare benefits, it may be even more difficult for workers with long Covid to access appropriate medical care and return to productivity. Accordingly, absent the Pandemic, todays headline Payrolls were shy by about 5.6 (-5.6) million or 3.5% (-3.5%) from where employment likely would have been under normal circumstances. Nationwide, seniors are the fastest growing group in the homeless population, with many finding themselves on the streets for the first time due to unaffordable rents, medical debts, job insecurity and family rifts. For the 12 months ended in November, the index for services for intermediate demand increased 6.7 percent, the largest 12- month advance since rising 7.9 percent in May. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were The ShadowStats Alternate CPI-U estimate restates current headline inflation so as to reverse the governments inflation-reducing gimmicks of the last four decades, which were designed specifically to reduce/ understate annual Cost of Living Adjustments to Social Security payments. These capabilities build on existing components, like the barometer, which can now detect cabin pressure changes, the GPS for additional input for speed changes, and the microphone. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected final demand price indexes, seasonally adjusted, Table B. Of particular current relevance, see the discussion in the Introduction and todays Opening Headlines from the November 4th: The Administrations depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve gets credit for the Third-Quarter 2022 GDP gain. -- Systemic Liquidity. WebiPhone 11 Problems: 5 Things You Need to Know. 71 No. FLASH (November 29th, released November 23rd): Before inflation adjustment, nominal monthly activity in October 2022 Durable Goods Orders gained 1.0% in the month, and 10.7%% year-to-year, encompassing respective monthly and annual gains of 7.4% and 77.1% in regularly volatile Commercial Aircraft orders. Photonic Engine enables this dramatic increase in quality by applying Deep Fusion earlier in the imaging process to deliver extraordinary detail, and preserve subtle textures, provide better color, and maintain more information in a photo. Its secure, quick and easy, Just choose your preferred method to show your support below support, Categories: Breaking News, Did You Know?, The Expose Blog, World News. Dec 09, 2022. If 24.1% of them have had long Covid, 34 million working-age Americans have, at some point, had long Covid. Resistance might decrease as a result of normal wear. Under current FRB/ FOMC policies, headline economic activity should continue to falter, and inflation should continue to soar (expanded economic specifics are detailed in the later OPENING HEADLINE and LATEST NUMBERS Sections). ShadowStats Defined "Basic M1" -- Combined Currency and Demand Deposits -- Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply All data is processed on the device and discarded after a crash event has been detected, unless a user has opted into sharing their data to improve Crash Detection. A model turns their head to face the camera in a black-and-white image shot on iPhone. Satellites are moving targets with low bandwidth, and it can take minutes for messages to get through. Everything is coming to a culmination at once, said Andrew Brenner, the head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities. Happy FOMC economic musings aside, consistent with a contracting domestic economy, todays December 1st estimates of October 2022 and revised Third-Quarter 2022 Real Construction Spending continued in deepening annual collapse, on early track for the fifth straight quarter, with an early indications for a 9.5% (-9.5%) year-to-year drop, and an annualized quarterly contraction of 13.5% (-13.5%), which would be the fifth quarter-to-quarter contraction in the last six quarters. . So we downloaded their dataset, which you can find here, to deduce just how many people have really died over the past 6 months compared to the five-year average.. There are however some further clues provided in another dataset provided by the ONS that may explain why so many people are dying. WebOur how many months am I calculator uses your due date to calculate how many calendar months and days you are pregnant. Here are the takeaways: Inflation remains relentless. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max Clear Case and Silicone Cases will be available in midnight, storm blue, red, chalk pink, lilac, elderberry, succulent, and sunglow. Apples more than 100,000 employees are dedicated to making the best products on earth, and to leaving the world better than we found it. That circumstance has been pushed back further into the future by two years, or so, reflecting extreme FOMC rate hikes this year. Inflation indexing cannot go beyond 3.5% in any given year. Users only need an iPhone to sign up, and can then experience Fitness+ on iPhone, iPad, and Apple TV. Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation, Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force The revised third-quarter GDP quarterly gain of 2.9% was against unrevised 0.6% (-0.6%) and 1.7% (-1.7%) annualized quarterly GDP contractions in the prior second- and first-quarters of 2022. Separate from the nonsense handling of gasoline prices in the Services Sector, PPI Final Demand Goods (including Energy/ Gasoline) year-to-year unadjusted change slowed to 10.53% in October 2022, from 11.31% in September, 12.27% in August 2022, 14.66% in July and the series high of 17.65% in June. According to the ONS, England and Wales suffered 14,616 Covid-19 deaths between week 16 and week 43 of 2022. The microphone is turned on only when driving is detected; this can be triggered by Bluetooth, CarPlay, or speed. For most photos, the quad-pixel sensor combines every four pixels into one large quad pixel equivalent to 2.44 m, resulting in amazing low-light capture and keeping photo size at a practical 12MP. Stripping out food and fuel to get a sense of underlying price trends, the so-called core index climbed by 6.6 percent, the fastest pace since 1982 and more than economists had expected. And absent intervention, the situation is likely to worsen. National Vital Statistics Reports Vol. Biggest upside revision by Sector was 270,000 jobs in Professional and Business Services. Biggest downside revision by Sector was 323,300 (-323,300) in Retail Trade. Final adjustments will be posted in February 2023, along with the headline January 2023 labor details. Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 FLASH (December 1st): October 2022 Construction Spending Reversing the usual, traditional pattern of upside revisions to the prior two months inflation-adjusted Real Construction Spending--adjusted for the continuing explosive annual growth in the PPI Construction Inflation--October 2022 Real Construction Spending showed a thirteenth consecutive monthly year-to-year plunge, down by 8.7% (-8.7%, versus Septembers revised 10.5% (-10.5%) [previously 9.9% (-9.9%)], and Augusts revised near-term record annual drop of 11.0% (-11.0%) [previously 10.5% (-10.5%)], all consistent with a continuing and intensifying sharp new pullback in economic activity. The background and detail of this circumstance is reviewed and discussed in Commentaries Nos. NFL news roundup: Latest league updates from Friday, Dec. 9. Such contrasted with respective monthly and annual changes of a 1.1% (-1.1%) contraction and a 1.3% annual gain the prior month. iPhone 14 Pro takes computational photography even further with Photonic Engine, offering a giant leap for mid- to low-light performance in photos across all cameras through a deep integration of hardware and software: up to 2x on the Main camera, up to 3x on the Ultra Wide camera, up to 2x on the Telephoto camera, and up to 2x on the TrueDepth camera. The advanced display also brings the same peak HDR brightness level as Pro Display XDR, and the highest outdoor peak brightness in a smartphone: up to 2000 nits, which is twice as bright as iPhone 13 Pro. Gas prices give experts a sense of how the economy is doing, but they also carry political weight. WebThe California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) responds to all types of emergencies. Soplease support us in our efforts to bring you honest, reliable, investigative journalismtoday. Dec 09, 2022. The revised third-quarter GDP quarterly gain of 2.9% was against unrevised 0.6% (-0.6%) and 1.7% (-1.7%) annualized quarterly GDP contractions in the prior second- and first-quarters of 2022. Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tightening Was Being Used to Constrain Consumer Liquidity and Domestic Economic Growth Should I use all my inheritance for a down payment? May 2021 Metropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates. Users can make up to five edits to a given message, and recipients will be able to see a record of edits made to the message. A homeless encampment in Phoenix, Arizona, in May. African Americans and Indigenous people disproportionately experience homelessness in Maricopa county, and are overrepresented in the death toll. The Royal Diary. Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues This is the first time that Java is not part of the top 3 since the beginning of the TIOBE index in 2001. Invisalign clear aligners are virtually invisible people may not even notice youre wearing them. A survey from the United Kingdoms Trades Union Congress (TUC) found that. Click on the ALTERNATE DATA at the top of this screen to view the GDP graph [the accompanying data file there requires subscriber log-in]. WebWelcome to the Big Eyes crypto cathouse. Federal Reserve Board (FRB) policies remained in place at the November 2022 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (November 2nd FOMC Statement and Press Conference), along with an otherwise anticipated 75-basis point (0.75%) rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate. FLASH (November 17th): Todays October 2022 Housing Starts and Building Permits showed continued deepening monthly and annual collapse, with a suggestion of Fourth-Quarter 2022 activity being on early track for a third, consecutive quarterly contraction, with a deepening decline in year-to-year activity. Since this report focuses on working-age Americans, we will use that groups labor force participation rate of 75%. An irresistibly cute community-owned defi coin thatll make awww fortune. WebData Brief No. And according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about. This is a public health crisis thats going to continue to get worse as more people, especially seniors, are priced out of housing, as our fentanyl crisis grows more out of hand and until theres a political sense of urgency to help those who are the most beat down by our broken systems, she said. Explore more articles. Even the headline Aggregate Money Supply M2 has absorbed 14-years of normal stimulus. Splash, water, and dust resistance are not permanent conditions. Crash Detection uses specialized components paired with Apple-designed algorithms to detect a severe car crash and automatically dial emergency services when a user is unconscious or unable to reach their iPhone. F E D E R A L .. R E S E R V E FLASH: November 22nd. Still, some analysts pointed out that some members of OPEC are unable to meet production quotas, which might minimize the impact of the cut. Read Now. The correct way of measuring pregnancy avoids this confusion since the word "month" is not used at all. At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for October 2022 Basic M1 eased to 9.3% from 11.6% in September 2022. A study published in The Lancet, found that. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. The following chart is taken from Public Health Scotlands Covid-19 Dashboard, and it shows the weekly number of deaths compared to the 2015-2019 five-year average . You can remove them to eat and drink, to brush and floss, or for special occasions. While higher rates continue to hit the Economy hard, contrary to FOMC hype, they do little to constrain current Inflation. That circumstance has been pushed further into the future by two years, or so, reflecting extreme FOMC rate hikes this year. Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing The Lock Screen is more personal, beautiful, and helpful than ever with a multilayered effect that artfully sets subjects of photos in front of the time, and newly designed widgets that offer information at a glance. Emergency SOS via satellite was designed for use in open spaces with a clear line of sight to the sky. Technical notes . Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy The annual inflation adjustment has been awarded since 1975 under a formula legislated by Congress. FLASH: November 2nd. He received an A.B. Measures of price change in the U.S. recently experienced the largest period of inflation since 2008. The monthly change in prices is also worrying. Together, these three factors suggest that if long Covid patients dont begin recovering at greater rates, the economic burden will continue to rise. ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. So we can eat the fish. WebThe first major adaptation to quote literal passages from the diary was 2014's Anne, authorised and initiated by the Anne Frank Foundation in Basel.After a two-year continuous run at the purpose-built Theater Amsterdam in the Netherlands, the play had productions in Germany and Israel.. Other adaptations of the diary include a version by Wendy Kesselman WebFollow Star Magazine for the latest and breaking in celebrity, Hollywood, and entertainment news with stories, photos, and videos from the hottest stars. WebYet, that robust headline Payroll Employment just minimally recovered its Pre-Pandemic level two months ago, in headline August 2022 reporting. Taking computational photography to the next level, the new pro camera system on iPhone delivers stunning images in Portrait mode. On the inflation front, 29% of the headline jump in October 2022 Nominal Retail Sales was due to spiking gasoline prices. Our customers count on their iPhone every day, and with iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, were delivering more advancements than any other iPhone. Third-Quarter 2022 ShadowStats Alternate GDP showed parallel, trade-distorted annualized real growth of 0.6%, up from the prior two quarters contractions of 2.6% (-2.6%) and 3.6% (-3.6%), but still shy by 1.5% (-1.5%) of ever recovering its Pre-Pandemic Peak level. For example, employees with no option to work remotely could have higher mandatory sick time allowances. This compares to 517 deaths for the whole of 2021 and 596 in 2022, according to the medical examiners annual reports. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Apple debuts iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, apple.com/legal/sales-support/iphoneinstallments_us. Further discussion also follows in the sections covering the LATEST NUMBERS, HEADLINE DETAILS and SYSTEMIC RISK FEDERAL RESERVE. 71 No. Here is how you know. E C O N O M Y FLASH (December 9th): The University of Michigans early December 2022 Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 4.0% against Novembers reading, but still held shy by 41.5% (-41.5%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level (go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for details). So this probably explains why Britain has suffered over 39,000 excess deaths since the middle of April. The value of corporate bonds and loans has tumbled. People ages 6 months through 64 years, and especially males ages 12 through 39 years, may consider getting the 2nd primary Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Novavax 8 weeks after the 1st dose. The fund supports homeowners with a household income at or below 150% of the area median income who are now grappling with unforeseen financial hardships due to COVID. ET] - IN THE NEWS: Todays University of Michigan early December 2022 Consumer Sentiment held shy by 41.5% (-41.5%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic peak. October 2022 PPI Finished Goods inflation (the only meaningful PPI aggregate) turned higher month-to-month in October, but eased in November along with lower gasoline prices. total separations . Mr. Biden also noted that inflation continued to be a global problem that was not affecting just the United States. Accordingly, the April 2021 to October 2022 growth rates here generally are shown against that February 2020 PPT, instead of year-to-year. That said, seasonally adjusted November 2022 Payrolls gained at a slowing 263,000 jobs in month, up by 1,044,000 since the March 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak. May 2021 Metropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates. STILL AT FOUR-PLUS DECADE HIGHS, INFLATION PROBLEMS LIKELY WILL SOAR ANEW (updated December 9th). of private sector workers in the U.S. (around. ) Third, we need to calculate the reduced hours of the people with long Covid who kept working. The following chart shows the monthly age-standardised mortality rates by vaccination status among each age group for Non-Covid-19 deaths in England between January and May 2022, using the figures contained in table 2 of the Office for National Statistics recently published dataset . The quad-pixel sensor combines every four pixels into one large quad pixel, resulting in amazing low-light capture and keeping photo size at 12MP. This is bad news for Democrats ahead of the midterms. (November 22nd, updating November 15th) OCTOBER 2022 MONETARY BASE -- ShadowStats estimated the October 2022 Monetary Base shrank month-to-month and year-to-year, dominated by the declining Reserve Balances at Federal Reserve Banks component, despite the Currency in Circulation component breaking to a new historic high (Federal Reserve Board - FRB, ShadowStats). While we do not know for sure why more disabled people are participating in the labor force, one likely explanation is the pandemic shift to remote work, which makes employment more accessible for many with disabilities. From about 7.95% of Americans owning cryptocurrency in 2018, the percentage rose to 14.4% in 2019 and 23.16% in 2021. Third-Quarter 2022 Building Permits contracted an unrevised, annualized quarterly pace of 28.7% (-28.7%), following a 23.6% (-23.6%) plunge in Second-Quarter 2022 activity, with year-to-year change turning negative by 5.0% (-5.0%). The question is, why? Congress keeps delaying U.S. Government Shutdowns, with continual increases in and extensions to the Debt Ceiling, amidst ongoing political games. Today, Apple leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Apple TV. 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